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This is a weekly chart of the difference between the front month contract and the next contract in front for S&P 500 Futures. (Don't worry, you don't need to understand this lingo to understand this post, but if you'd like more information about what front month contract and next contract in front mean, I added links at the bottom of this post. To put it...

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This is a daily chart of Bitcoin with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud is one of the best indicators for detecting trend reversals. When a candle breaks above the cloud from below, it is often considered a bullish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. Similarly, when a candle breaks below the cloud from above, it is often considered a bearish...

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Market participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to...

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The chart above is a weekly chart of the entire price history of the PHLX Utility Sector (UTY). (The PHLX part of the name is just an historical reference to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which is now part of the Nasdaq.) I chose this specific ticker over other utility tickers like XLU or VPU because it provides more historical data and therefore a more...

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...is highly unlikely. The chart above shows the entire price history of the S&P 500. Each candle is a 6-month period. The channel that you see is a regression channel. It shows how far above or below the mean the stock market is at a given time. At the close of 2021, the stock market hit the 2-sigma deviation from the mean. This is about as over-extended as...

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This is a monthly chart of the entire price history of the company Unilever (UL). Unilever engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer goods. Applied to the chart is a log-linear regression channel. This channel helps me better visualize extreme price deviations from the mean. The red line is the mean price, the top blue line is the price that is 2 standard...

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This post is in response to requests for me to give a shorter-term analysis of where SPY might go. Right now the outlook is generally neutral or muted with both bullish and bearish biases battling it out. I will present both bullish and bearish cases for you to weigh. Bull Case Daily chart: On the daily chart, SPY is clearly in an uptrend. It has broken the...

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The chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury...

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The chart above shows the relative performance between the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 on a yearly basis. You can see that we are currently sitting right on the 125-year support line. (This may possibly be the longest-lasting support line I've ever seen). This chart may be indicating that, in the years to come, the Dow Jones may outperform the S&P 500. As you...

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The chart above shows the Rate of Change (over a rolling 5-period) in the Fed Funds Rate. The parabolic Rate of Change is unprecedented, yet the Federal Reserve is just getting underway with quantitative tightening as it pledges to do whatever it takes to squash high inflation. It's hard to imagine the Fed can pull off a soft landing. Ironically, this looks...

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1. Study. Learn how financial markets work. Years ago I took Khan Academy's free courses on the financial markets. It really helped reinforce what I already knew, taught me new stuff and solidified my confidence in understanding how the financial markets work. Here's the link: www.khanacademy.org Learn the...

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Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending. Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect...

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In this post, I will explain how traders can maximize their use of log scale on Trading View. I will give examples of when you should use log scale on your charts and when you should not, as well as provide an in-depth analysis of its use cases, including how you can actually visualize the entire lifecycle of an asset using the log scale. In the chart above, I...

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This is a chart of Enphase Energy (ENPH). For those who are not familiar with the company, Enphase Energy develops and manufactures microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. They are one of the preeminent companies in solar power. Recently, price gapped up on the daily chart following news that Congress would pass legislation to fund sustainable...

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Top of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below. First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500....

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This is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout? It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead...

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In this post, I will give a market analysis focusing on the current status of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). As you can see in the chart above, SPY broke out above the exponential moving average ribbon (yellow and orange) lines. Increased volume confirmed the breakout. The ribbon continues to narrow which also confirms the breakout. Moving averages converge during the...

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This chart shows three things. First, the candles show how Walmart performs relative to the broader market (S&P 500 ETF - SPY). Second, it shows how that ratio changes as the unemployment rate goes up (light blue line). Third, it shows the 25-year support line of Walmart's relative performance to SPY (red line). Notice how Walmart's relative performance goes...