Borrowing large sums of money at near zero interest rates to dump into risk on assets is a thing of the past. As interest rates continue to rise, people will be less inclined to put their money into risk on assets, specifically growth stocks and cryptocurrencies. Historically, 200M MA has hovered and served as resistance for the US 10Y. Not only has the US 10Y...
I'm tracking the 10Y very closely. Why? Because 10Y is the driver of all equities. If 10Y DUMPS, equities and crypto go up. So, is 10Y close to topping out? I'm seeing a trendbreak and new high, so a correction is coming, that will test the low of the bigger up trend channel. stay tuned. 🤙🏽
TSTW. Not legal and financial advice; Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
The chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury...
Hey everyone! 👋 This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and...
It looks like the final fifth wave has begun. It is assumed that it will end in the range of 4% -4.4%
We should all be aware that USA 10yr treasuries pumping up is bad news for all risk assets. And mix that with DXY pumping and we get bear markets like most of 2022. But I remain steadfast that the W4 isn't completed yet, the 382 is around 2.4% & ema 100 is around 2.24% on 3D so this is likely the B wave of the ABC down of the minor 4th and should finish in...
Hey all, I wanted to post a few thoughts of the somewhat educational variety. Hopefully this will help with perspective on where we've been and why I continue to see equity market weakness for the extended and foreseeable future (1-3 years maybe). So starting with this chart, this is the 10 year US Treasury yield below and the S&P 500 index above going back to...
Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Ignore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and...
Hello Fellow Global Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of the US Government Bond Yield! Price Action Analysis US 10 Years Government Bond Yield ( US10Y ) has rebounded on the bullish trendline. Simultaneously, US10Y is forming the flag pattern which may indicate a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. As Traders, We can look for other...
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, if we look carefully at the chart, we will notice that a QML structure and a return in the form of cp is forming, I think the chart should move down after hitting the supply zone, good luck, this is It's just my opinion.
Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates: I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks. The early 2022 the conclusions were: - Bonds: A bull market...
Here we have the Yield Curve: Treasuries are shown from lowest duration (US03MY) to highest duration (US30Y). Normally, the lowest duration treasuries yield the least (least) and the highest duration treasuries yield the most (riskiest). However, now the 3-Year Treasury yields more than the 5 year, 10 year and 30 year. The Fed has decided on a hard landing and...
The US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data...
TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro...
We are clearly seeing Bond Yields tightening at an unprecedented rate. What is so interesting about this is that historically, yields have been driven higher by the FEDs Fund Rate, but Powell merely did a 0.25% hike on March 16th. Bonds have already priced in rates at 2.5% and coincidentally this was the same rate (2.5%-3.0%) that drove the market into...
Yield curve on a log scale Us 10 Year minus US 2 year (the yield curve) monthly logarithmic chart. Clear linearities at the top of the range and at the bottom of the range. Indicates we are currently at a bottom. Closest analog is the early 2000's period.